Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy, Energy Sector Dynamics, and Regional GDP Disparities in Mozambique: An Analysis Using Panel Data (2020–2025)
Abstract
This study investigates the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in Mozambique, with an emphasis on the dynamics of the energy sector and regional disparities in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using provincial panel data from 2020 to 2025 for the 11 Mozambican provinces, we apply fixed effects econometric methodologies, including interaction terms, to examine monetary transmission channels and their asymmetric implications. The results reveal that the MIMO (Interbank Money Market) rate has a significant and negative influence on total credit (coefficient = -0.147, p<0.05), with heterogeneous effects between regions with high and low GDP per capita. The analysis shows that less developed regions are more sensitive to interest rate variations, while more developed regions are more resilient to monetary shocks. At the same time, the energy sector emerges as a determining factor in this asymmetric dynamic, with more developed regions exhibiting significantly higher energy-GDP elasticities (1.2 versus 0.5 in less developed regions). This empirical evidence has important implications for the formulation of monetary and energy policies that take regional specificities into account, contributing to more inclusive and balanced economic development in Mozambique.
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References
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