Trend, Volatility, and Structural Breaks in Oil Production in Angola: A Time Series Analysis (1973–2024)
Keywords:
Oil Production; Trend; Structural Breaks; Volatility.Abstract
The Angolan economy exhibits a structural dependence on the extractive sector, making the analysis of oil production dynamics fundamental to the country’s macroeconomic stability. This study examines the evolution of oil production in Angola from 1973 to 2024, with the aim of identifying structural breaks and measuring the persistence of volatility. The methodology adopts a quantitative approach based on stochastic decomposition of time series, using the Hodrick–Prescott filter to extract trends and a GARCH model to analyze conditional variance. In addition, the Bai–Perron test is used to detect endogenous structural breaks. The results reveal three statistically significant breaks in 1988, 1995, and 2004, associated with key moments of institutional consolidation and national pacification. Volatility modeling indicates an extremely high degree of persistence (0.9996), suggesting that shocks in the sector exhibit strong temporal memory and do not dissipate rapidly. It is concluded that after 2004, oil production entered a phase of geological maturation and gradual decline, with no evidence of new permanent regime changes. The study contributes to scientific knowledge by validating the application of variance models in rent-dependent economies and alerts society to the urgency of economic diversification in light of the rigidity and vulnerability of the current extractive model.
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