Effect of international coal and natural gas price shocks on the exchange rate in Mozambique
Keywords:
Shocks, Prices, Coal and Natural Gas.Abstract
In this research, the objective is to understand what effect international commodity prices have on the current account and the Mozambican economy in general through the exchange rate. The analysis was done based on econometric analysis, manifested by the application of the Vector Error Correction (VEC) as a development of the Vector Auto Regressive Residuals (VAR) model. The results obtained, reveal that the increase in one unit in the international price index of mineral coal and natural gas cause a reduction of 0.017062 (MZN/USD) and 0.258819 MZN/USD in the exchange rate to the uncertain. These results reveal the vulnerability of the Mozambican economy to the international prices of mineral resources, since their impact on the exchange rate greatly affects the purchasing power of Mozambicans, taking into account that they import even basic necessities.
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