Análisis de los efectos de las crisis fiscales, climáticas y de conflicto sobre la eficiencia del gasto público y la dinámica de la deuda pública en Mozambique (2020-2024)
Palabras clave:
Eficiência da despesa pública; Choques compostos; Análise envoltória de dados; Sustentabilidade da dívida.Resumen
Between 2020 and 2024, Mozambique faced an unprecedented combination of fiscal, climate, and armed conflict shocks, which exposed structural weaknesses in public finance management. This article empirically analyzes how these compound shocks affected the technical efficiency of provincial public expenditure and public debt dynamics, based on a balanced panel of 11 provinces over five years (55 observations). Spending efficiency was estimated using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA-BCC, input orientation), complemented by fixed effects models and a difference-in-differences strategy to identify causal effects and validate the parallel trends hypothesis.
The results indicate that provinces exposed to multiple simultaneous shocks experienced a statistically significant reduction of between 18% and 24% in the technical efficiency of public spending compared to the others, reflecting losses in fiscal productivity and disruption to service provision. It is also noted that the intensification of the conflict in Cabo Delgado was associated with an average contraction of 24.7% in provincial GDP, highlighting the particularly severe impact of security shocks on subnational economic performance. Despite this adverse environment, the public debt ratio remained stable at around 73% of national GDP, largely due to debt restructuring and access to concessional external financing, which preserved macroeconomic sustainability but did not prevent the deterioration of spending efficiency at the provincial level.
The findings confirm that compound shocks shift the public sector production frontier and widen efficiency disparities between provinces, reinforcing the urgency of more adaptive fiscal institutions and decentralized crisis response mechanisms in fragile states. The study contributes to the literature by integrating multiple shock indicators into an efficiency assessment framework based on DEA and panel techniques, providing subnational evidence relevant to the design of fiscal resilience policies in Mozambique and other highly vulnerable contexts.
Descargas
Citas
Afonso, A., Romero, A., & Monsalve, J. (2013). Public sector efficiency: Evidence for Latin America. Public Choice, 157(3–4), 553–580.
Acemoglu, D., García Jimeno, C., & Robinson, J. A. (2023). State capacity and economic development in fragile states (Unpublished manuscript). Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press.
Banco de Moçambique. (2020–2024). Relatório anual. Banco de Moçambique.
Besley, T., & Persson, T. (2008). Wars and state capacity. Journal of Economic Growth, 13(3), 217–252.
Blattman, C., & Miguel, E. (2010). Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(1), 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.1.3
Brück, T., d’Errico, M., & Pietrelli, R. (2019). The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security. World Development, 122, 194–210.
Cantelmo, A., Melina, G., & Portillo, R. (2023). Compound shocks and fiscal policy in fragile states (IMF Working Paper No. 2023/045). International Monetary Fund.
Cevik, S., & Jalles, J. T. (2022). Pandemics, natural disasters, and growth: Getting the resilience dividend. Emerging Markets Review, 52, 100907.
Cevik, S., & Sedik, T. S. (2022). Fiscal consequences of natural disasters and pandemics in low income countries (IMF Working Paper No. 2022/145). International Monetary Fund.
Chr. Michelsen Institute. (2023). Costs and consequences of the hidden debt scandal of Mozambique. Chr. Michelsen Institute.
Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2007). Civil war. In T. Sandler & K. Hartley (Eds.), Handbook of defense economics: Vol. 2. Defense in a globalized world (pp. 853–883). Elsevier.
De la Brière, B., & Lambert, S. (2021). Post conflict state building and public service delivery. World Development, 143, 105457.
Dell’Anno, R., & Afonso, A. (2021). The impact of natural disasters on fiscal sustainability. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 23(4), 871–896.
Dercon, S. (2012). The impact of shocks and risk on risk preferences: Evidence from a natural experiment in Ethiopia. Journal of African Economies, 21(3), 385–411.
Fürstenau, D., et al. (2024). Compound climate and conflict risks in fragile states. Nature Sustainability. Advance online publication.
Gupta, S., Davoodi, H., & Alonso Terme, R. (2005). Does corruption affect income inequality and poverty? IMF Staff Papers, 52(Special Issue). International Monetary Fund.
Gupta, S., & Verhoeven, M. (2001). The efficiency of government expenditure: Experiences from Africa. European Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 417–448.
Hanlon, J. (2016). Mozambique’s “hidden debt” scandal. Review of African Political Economy, 43(149), 510–517.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística. (2020–2024). Quadros do Produto Interno Bruto Provincial. Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Moçambique.
Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades. (2021). Relatório anual de gestão de calamidades 2021. Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades.
International Monetary Fund. (2021). Regional economic outlook: Sub Saharan Africa (Edição 2021). International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund. (2022–2023). Fiscal monitor: Climate fiscal policy for a just transition. International Monetary Fund.
Justino, P. (2009). Poverty dynamics, conflict, and convergence in Mozambique (HiCN Working Paper No. 75). Households in Conflict Network.
Klomp, J., & Valckx, K. (2014). Natural disasters and economic growth: A meta analysis. Global Environmental Change, 26, 183–195.
Lakatos, E. M., & Marconi, M. A. (2003). Fundamentos de metodologia científica (5. ed.). Atlas.
Ministério da Economia e Finanças. (2020–2024). Boletim do Planeamento do Sector Público e Orçamento do Estado (BdPESOE). Governo de Moçambique.
Ministério da Economia e Finanças. (2024). Quadros Produto Interno Bruto Provincial e Mapa II de Desembolso de Financiamento Externo. Governo de Moçambique.
Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development. (2007). Performance indicators for public spending efficiency in primary and secondary education (OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 546). OECD Publishing.
Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect? Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21–41.
Presbitero, A. F., Ghura, D., Dell’Ariccia, G., & Céspedes, L. F. (2018). Public debt in developing countries: Trends, determinants, and challenges. IMF Economic Review, 66(1), 17–42.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100(2), 573–578.
World Bank. (2022). Mozambique country economic memorandum: Building resilience in a context of multiple shocks. World Bank Group.
